Dwindling bears enthusiasm on the first early autumn sessions have resulted, during current 6-month rally, in just another fresh year market highs. As we have confidently broken out above volume cluster near 1025-1028p ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) already on wednesday 9th septmeber, we saw an open room to the fresh highs.
Few pages back, i have notified bulls to have to deal with financial & energy sectors that looked unsustainable to correspond with their plans. Looks like placing has sharply changed for bulls favor, at least in energies. Crude oil market got a warm welcome of OPEC’s no output changes and against the background of a lower dollar, has rolled upside and back in the middle of august range. Therefore, Schlumberger, Occidental and others have knocked out XLE SPDR ETF to be almost the leading sector of the fresh market upside jerk.
As you can see above, since 1st september downside move, energies, coupled with industrials, had stroked up some 7.5% gain. That’s for only 7 sessions. Since the past SPY year high, knocked near 27th august (to tell the truth, on 28th market have posted its highest point but closing price was below open), energies with the majority of sectors, looks pretty strong, fully outperforming the market middle-term trend continuation. But the leading bulls problem, concerning energies, is not completely resolved for now. On the landscape of impressive sector dynamic inflows, we still do not see fresh year highs since (drumroll please..) 11th june. Chart below nicely depicts it.
Recent friday 11th september downside crack (minus near 3$ from the session high with closing price at 69$/b.) added more uncertainty in the crude oil market even short-term forecasting, with the remarkable internals the day before. On thursday oil volume in electronic trading on Nymex have exceeded some 28% in comparison with the past three month average. And that is against the background of high ranging mode price performance with negligible difference between open & closing session values. So, it brings energy sector in a sloppy environment, when the market leg upstairs could be not enough to push energies some 2+ percent higher to victorious fresh year highs.
Back to the sectors performance, since the past SPY highest point on 27th august, the leading underperforming sector appears to be financials. Earlier i already wrote about financials sluggishness & a number of remarkable folk’s volume performance have been appeared. Since then, conditions did not change much. From 2nd september, the sector trying hard to go upstairs. Indeed, attempts are reworded with nice results – it is outperforming SPY – but still the sector higher levels are not welcomed. The volume average of four financial folks, back few weeks ago appeared to account more then 20% of NYSE total volume, have faded dramatically. Relevantly surfacing question – what can now lead the sector even higher than latest highest point of some 135.5% profit from 6th march SPY lowest point – do not received with distinct answer. Still, unveiling non-confirmations theme, should admit that resistance of a number of sectors in adopting fresh market highs could last down the road too long. Nice example represent the same financial sector – see chart below.
In june – july current year period, leading the rally XLF ETF, did post accurate bearish divergence with SPY, representing non-confirmation of upside market move. What was the result? SPY indeed have contracted, losing some of its gain. Therefore, lower high & higher high of XLF & SPY, respectively, (if financials do not make higher high) could correspond to be the beginning of the second topping movement, as bear sais, of the current bear market rally.
Bulls fervor is also not confirmed by volume. Again, down the road from 1st september sharp leg down session volume spike, non from the following sessions, didn’t exceeded that day by volume. So, as you can read from the book, covering trading basics, that could be printed even before electronic trading was all over introduced, current late week year highs are not confirmed yet.
Total volume of the 1st september break down below 1000p on S&P 500 is exceeding an average of ESU9 contract (which tracks ES from june to september current year) on almost 35% & is even almost twice higher, relatively to an average of current september sessions, except its 1st day. Therefore, and that’s the prominent topic to analyse separately, volume is not just disconfirming recent market highs, but it is also just remarkably too light. The average volume of almost each 30 minutes of the current early autumn sessions, except 1st september, are lower than the average of previous S&P 500 contract (ESU9) that in majority was tracking summer sessions.
Few pages back, i have notified bulls to have to deal with financial & energy sectors that looked unsustainable to correspond with their plans. Looks like placing has sharply changed for bulls favor, at least in energies. Crude oil market got a warm welcome of OPEC’s no output changes and against the background of a lower dollar, has rolled upside and back in the middle of august range. Therefore, Schlumberger, Occidental and others have knocked out XLE SPDR ETF to be almost the leading sector of the fresh market upside jerk.
As you can see above, since 1st september downside move, energies, coupled with industrials, had stroked up some 7.5% gain. That’s for only 7 sessions. Since the past SPY year high, knocked near 27th august (to tell the truth, on 28th market have posted its highest point but closing price was below open), energies with the majority of sectors, looks pretty strong, fully outperforming the market middle-term trend continuation. But the leading bulls problem, concerning energies, is not completely resolved for now. On the landscape of impressive sector dynamic inflows, we still do not see fresh year highs since (drumroll please..) 11th june. Chart below nicely depicts it.
Recent friday 11th september downside crack (minus near 3$ from the session high with closing price at 69$/b.) added more uncertainty in the crude oil market even short-term forecasting, with the remarkable internals the day before. On thursday oil volume in electronic trading on Nymex have exceeded some 28% in comparison with the past three month average. And that is against the background of high ranging mode price performance with negligible difference between open & closing session values. So, it brings energy sector in a sloppy environment, when the market leg upstairs could be not enough to push energies some 2+ percent higher to victorious fresh year highs.
Back to the sectors performance, since the past SPY highest point on 27th august, the leading underperforming sector appears to be financials. Earlier i already wrote about financials sluggishness & a number of remarkable folk’s volume performance have been appeared. Since then, conditions did not change much. From 2nd september, the sector trying hard to go upstairs. Indeed, attempts are reworded with nice results – it is outperforming SPY – but still the sector higher levels are not welcomed. The volume average of four financial folks, back few weeks ago appeared to account more then 20% of NYSE total volume, have faded dramatically. Relevantly surfacing question – what can now lead the sector even higher than latest highest point of some 135.5% profit from 6th march SPY lowest point – do not received with distinct answer. Still, unveiling non-confirmations theme, should admit that resistance of a number of sectors in adopting fresh market highs could last down the road too long. Nice example represent the same financial sector – see chart below.
In june – july current year period, leading the rally XLF ETF, did post accurate bearish divergence with SPY, representing non-confirmation of upside market move. What was the result? SPY indeed have contracted, losing some of its gain. Therefore, lower high & higher high of XLF & SPY, respectively, (if financials do not make higher high) could correspond to be the beginning of the second topping movement, as bear sais, of the current bear market rally.
Bulls fervor is also not confirmed by volume. Again, down the road from 1st september sharp leg down session volume spike, non from the following sessions, didn’t exceeded that day by volume. So, as you can read from the book, covering trading basics, that could be printed even before electronic trading was all over introduced, current late week year highs are not confirmed yet.
Total volume of the 1st september break down below 1000p on S&P 500 is exceeding an average of ESU9 contract (which tracks ES from june to september current year) on almost 35% & is even almost twice higher, relatively to an average of current september sessions, except its 1st day. Therefore, and that’s the prominent topic to analyse separately, volume is not just disconfirming recent market highs, but it is also just remarkably too light. The average volume of almost each 30 minutes of the current early autumn sessions, except 1st september, are lower than the average of previous S&P 500 contract (ESU9) that in majority was tracking summer sessions.
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