(*something – typically bearish september month)
Traders back on track according to remarkable volume performance. But the question is what sentiment they have. According today’s september 1st session results with SPY contracting 2.2% on positive 10AM ET econ data – bearish, for now. Back to today’s volume, it was: 1) highest in at least last 2 month; 2) 34% higher than average daily ESU9 (S&P 500 e-mini futures contract tracking from june to september current year) performance; 3) higher each 30 minutes relatively to an average of ESU9 contract.
Summer is over, children back to school – traders back to trading desks. That could be nice reason of stunning volume surge, if there’s no background. But the background is full of content. The topic I want to point out is a story of four big financial guys playing their own games, or being played by someone, that’s not matter of fact. Citi, AIG, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac in the past week have generated volume accounting near 25% of total NYSE volume, which was still pretty light. Telling the truth, volume was poor past couple of weeks and i was ready not pay attention to financials tricks but it finally concerned me directly.
One of my instantly using indicators TRIN, monitoring difference between NYSE advancing issues and its volume and declining issues and its volume, broken. Shortly, on thursday, 26th august in the past week, TRIN showed extremely strong signal to buy, that was almost irrelevant to real market environment and internals. (See Brett Steenbarger full coverage on that story). On friday the situation didn’t change. There went monday that saw huge financials plunge at the session beginning, but then recovery came to the closing bell. And there goes Tuesday, 1st september, when nothing could stop financials fall. Plus already on monday & moreover on tuesday TRIN have reversed and was extremely bearish.
Today’s remarkable volume pick up is easy to interpret like strong confirmation bears downward move. And the supposing could easily be bolstered by the fact that 4 financial giants I have mentioned above have soared since the start of the past month to 28th august on an average of +220% with the worst result belong to Citi that have soared only 65% and the best result, “and the Oscar goes to” Freddie Mac with tremendous pick up on 287%. Whooa!
Still it’s too early to call for a serious pull back but as did school bell ring today – first alarm bell for bulls has rang.
Traders back on track according to remarkable volume performance. But the question is what sentiment they have. According today’s september 1st session results with SPY contracting 2.2% on positive 10AM ET econ data – bearish, for now. Back to today’s volume, it was: 1) highest in at least last 2 month; 2) 34% higher than average daily ESU9 (S&P 500 e-mini futures contract tracking from june to september current year) performance; 3) higher each 30 minutes relatively to an average of ESU9 contract.
Summer is over, children back to school – traders back to trading desks. That could be nice reason of stunning volume surge, if there’s no background. But the background is full of content. The topic I want to point out is a story of four big financial guys playing their own games, or being played by someone, that’s not matter of fact. Citi, AIG, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac in the past week have generated volume accounting near 25% of total NYSE volume, which was still pretty light. Telling the truth, volume was poor past couple of weeks and i was ready not pay attention to financials tricks but it finally concerned me directly.
One of my instantly using indicators TRIN, monitoring difference between NYSE advancing issues and its volume and declining issues and its volume, broken. Shortly, on thursday, 26th august in the past week, TRIN showed extremely strong signal to buy, that was almost irrelevant to real market environment and internals. (See Brett Steenbarger full coverage on that story). On friday the situation didn’t change. There went monday that saw huge financials plunge at the session beginning, but then recovery came to the closing bell. And there goes Tuesday, 1st september, when nothing could stop financials fall. Plus already on monday & moreover on tuesday TRIN have reversed and was extremely bearish.
Today’s remarkable volume pick up is easy to interpret like strong confirmation bears downward move. And the supposing could easily be bolstered by the fact that 4 financial giants I have mentioned above have soared since the start of the past month to 28th august on an average of +220% with the worst result belong to Citi that have soared only 65% and the best result, “and the Oscar goes to” Freddie Mac with tremendous pick up on 287%. Whooa!
Still it’s too early to call for a serious pull back but as did school bell ring today – first alarm bell for bulls has rang.
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