Feb10 P/L%

Plus 21 and half percent.

26/02/10

Closer the session finish entered long position because: 1) financial sector (xlf) w/ $add were posting higher highs; 2) bullish internals (4t<-800 w/ 13t>+800 & $add: +500 while SP500 plus only 0.1% at the moment of trade entry); 3) no $ticks<-100 for the past 20 minutes before position open w/ lots $ticks>+300 and finally 4) no VWAP touch that have corresponded to be one more bullish issue. Fixed trade w/: 1) no ES higher high as NQ & ER have managed to post; 2) no appropriate volume surge confirming upside move; 3) Materials (xlb) (that was one of the most volatile sector during the session) relative weakness. Even further, should note, by summarizing sell & buy orders list when we were at the session top it was clearly evident, that some financial institution was heavily selling its positions in, at least, S&P 500 futures. That's the reason of such ugly two candles posted at the session high (see on the chart). That's the cause of no upside continuation move even when majority factors were betting on it. For the past week: plus 5.75 ES points or almost 6% profit.

25/02/10

Oh, boy! Today i made the most offensive trade exit at least in the current year. It was all about triangle breakout. To see how much possible profit I have lost click on the chart above and see enlarged report. That super promising trade was the third in succession during the session and was opened on: 1) very strong $add relatively to ES; 2) internals in favor - no $ticks <-600 for more then an hour and 3) no WVAP ES touch, that corresponds to be bullish signal. Soon triangle pattern have clearly appeared. I was waiting for upside breakout and it have occurred. ES spiked upside w/ noticeable volume surge. But then for a couple of minutes there was no continuation of the move. I thought something was wrong with pattern, so i have placed take profit not so far from ES levels at that moment. But soon, as it should be, ES rapidly started to grow. But my trade was already off the table. Do not wish to be upset so no calculations on lost opportunity in term of per sent and $.

Nevertheless, the past sessions was pretty profitable. In the first minutes after the closing bell I entered long position on: 1) NQ w/ ER posting fresh higher highs and 2) Greece concern w/ almost no fresh news seemed to be overtaken my the market already. Nasqaq w/ Russell indeed were nicely surging after my entry. But ES was trading at one level for more then 3 minutes - too long for the first session half an hour to stay at one place - thats why I exited.

If market not climbing it will fall further. On behalf of that issue plus NQ w/ ER posting fresh lower lows and overall bullish internals I entered short position. Very soon fixed, because ES have slided too sharply. S&P 500 was down 1.7% - too much for not so bearish and unusual internals - staying problem w/ Greece. So I have fixed.

24/02/10

Entered on: 1) successfully broken VWAP (at that moment support) level; 2) $add weaker than mkt and 3) Nasdaq Composite already posted lower low. Fixed on bears fault to push lower. Want to note and emphasize that today was very rare pattern when one of the leading sectors have strongly uncorrelated with others. We did have Nasdaq Composite lower low, we did have Russell 2000 back at the level of the past interim lower low. Although S&P 500 managed to resist. But should admit that: 1) internals indeed whole session were staying bullish & finacials (the strongest sector during past session) w/ materials (the weakest) also didn't post lower low.

23/02/10

Not an easy session finally finished. Can't be proud of my execution, either yesterday or today, because lots of really challenging opportunities were lost. Although, remember one of traders mantra? Loss of opportunity is better to loss of capital.

First session trade was absolutely based on fundamentals. We had unexpectedly bearish consumer confidence data (46.0 vs 55.0 estimated) and even the mkt had already hugely reacted on the number i have bet that the door to the downside was opened. But there were no specific internals data in my hands, thats why soon I preferred to get out of the trade. Unluckily I was too fast in my decision and as I have fixed short position, market continued to move lower.

I was frustrated little bit and unfortunately didn't manage to get that emotions came to my trading. Trading rule calling that "there is no place for wishful thinking and emotions in trading" was behind me and i made mistake. I have entered ones again short, calling for ES fresh session lows on Nasdaq weakness. ES indeed posted lower low. But downside momentum was shrinking. And as one more bullish divergence have appered (btw with $tick finally confirmation) ES pulled back to the upside. Trade met stop loss.

Third trade was opened within last session hour. Entered long on: 1) strong $add relatively to ES; 2) internals in favor (0t<1.1k w/ 2t>1.1k & 9t>+800 w/ 4t<-800 at the moment of my entry). Soon fixed, cause: 1) ES for more than 5 minutes couldn't climb above VWAP and 2) strong bearish divergence on ES w/ nq (Nasdaq Composite) & er (Russell 2000) have appeared.

22/02/10

Morning long position opened on: 1) nq & xle (the weakest sector for the session at that moment) posting lower lows; 2)diver signal that have sparked ES to climb higher litbit was too weak, not enough to reverse mkt to the upside. Closed on: 1) strong $add performance relatively to ES; 2) strong divergence calling to buy and 3) $tick too easily was pulling back above zero.

Last hour trade entered on: 1) bullish internals ($tick: 0t<-800 w/ 2t>+800); 2) betting on usual volume growth closer to the closing bell to support bulls attempt. Fixed with zero result because: 1) amount of bearish divergences was soaring; 2) no bulls strong superiority, plus internals not as bullish as needed to steadily climb higher. The possibility of ES testing VWAP was growing. But in fact, ES have easily broken VWAP and closed below it.

Last week was futures & options expiration week (or call it OPEX week). Thats why to make decision on market reaction to discount rate hike on friday was too unwisely. Today, on monday, leading US stocks indexes lost near 0.1-0.2%. Thats not so much. So we didn't get broad stocks selloff that means market accepts Fed move. Still, note that todays volume was well below the daily average so far this year. So it's not a time to strike the balance.

19/02/10

Wrongful trade exit yesterday - offensive stop loss order today.

Still, apart from the bad break, couple of mistakes were at the footing of todays snafu trade. Opened long on:
1) bullish internals (before entry $tick: 2t<-800 vs 13t>+800 w/ 3t>+1k; $add: +550, while SP500 plus only 0.25%); 2) $add soaring more aggressively than ES & already making higher high while ES only touches its interim high.

But soon ES slided sharply, shortly fell below VWAP and met my stop loss order. What was wrong?

1) I underestimated ES bearish divergence with leading oscillators. Even before entry I have knew that $tick had posted higher high. So divergence hadn't appeared on $tick chart unlike on ES chart. In the sessions when volume is heavy, such pattern is a sign of faulty ES divergence call. But looks like, the thiner volume is, the more likely $tick will mislead you, by posting the same higher highs and lower lows as S&P 500 do (check this tendency out in a middle of a low volume session). I had to count it in. Plus, near the level where ES divergence was, also took place strong resistance level - 1108.50p ES - at least 14/12/09, 02/12/09 & 16/11/09 VPOCs.

2) When i did entered long position i have realized that exact short-term call to buy, like sharp broad sectors push up, wasn't at a place. So i did accepted ES little bit sliding before rallying. Even more, I did allowed the possibility of ES drawdown to VWAP that indeed had occurred. That's where one of mistakes was. Remember one of traders mantra? A good trade is profitable right from the start.

All in all, the pattern and the trade that have took place today is absolutely and abnormally the same as it was on last wednesday. Again last session hour, bullish internals, $add higher high, i enter long and ES firstly sliding to VWAP but soon pulling back above my entry level. Déjà vu.

For the past shortened, in response to holiday, week the fund have slided some 2.5%. If that is correction or unlucky period (in response to last two session trades) then it's ok.

18/02/10

Opened long because: 1) internals were very bullish (before entry $tick was: 10t<-400 but near 50t>+400 w/ 0t<-800 while 4t>+800; $add:+500 while SP500 soared only almost 0.15%) 2) durable triangle resistance calling for upside breakout level have appeared. But i underestimated the environment. It was still far long before closing bell so volume was very thin. Bulls didn't manage to break durable triangle resistance level as i have expected. I was tired and done in at that moment so i hastened to close trade. That was offensive mistake. Already 2nd zero session in a row.

17/02/10

Half an hour before closing bell i entered long position on: 1) $add new higher highs and 2) bullish internals ($tick: 7t>+800 w/ 2t<-800 plus $add: +700 while SP500: +0.15% for a moment before entry). $add was indeed very nice forerunner of market upside continuation move. Still, as ES posted hh normal diver sell signal have appeared. Because of lack of volume in the market bulls couldn't struggle with divergence, so ES have pulled back to VWAP. After its test bulls attempts to push higher again seemed to fail so i have fixed. Soon mkt went higher on fundamentals: expectation and after closing bell actual confirmation of better then expected HP earnings results.

16/02/10

Nice last session hour trade. Entered long on: 1) bullish internals ($tick: 4t>+1k w/ 4t<-600; $add: 1.75k w/ SP500: +1.5% plus $trin: 0.5); 2) no $tcik <-100 last near 20 minutes before entry. But opened small size trade because pullback to support trend line level (where 200 ema m1 & 50 ema m5 were also placed) was in option. Fixed on no NQ higher high despite broad sectors with midcaps participation in the upside breakout. Plus volume was also declining while ES was trending to push higher. Still, upside move continuation indeed was in favor, cause after breakout for relatively long time $tick never posted numbers lower than +300.

12/02/10

Here it goes! After yesterday's the worst trading day since the fund have started (w/ huge drawdown on risk management dump) today i have posted the most accurate and profitable trade. Reasons to enter long position in the last session hour were:

1) bullish divergence w/ RSI, MACD, 3/10 oscillator & $tick;
2) no $add lower low;
3) internals in favor (for the session $tick: 3t.>+1.1k w/ 0t.<-1.1k)
4) bears did try hard to push mkt to the downside but it haven't managed to reach VWAP

Fixed on sluggish volume confirmation of the upside move. Still w/ broad leading indexes and stocks participation in the fresh leg higher didn't surprised to see higher high at the last minute of the main session.

Generally, the past week was very choppy in term of my trading w/ modest plus total result and 3.5 ES points profit. The year's 7th week could be more profitable if there would be no risk management faults. However, leading system troubles were fixed and particular decisions were made.

11/02/10

At the early morning I have opened long trade on account of appropriate ES break above VWAP. Internals were not in my trade favor ($add:-600 w/ SP500 at only -0.25%) and it have played out. For couple of minutes, bears slashed down ES back below VWAP. Trade was fixed.

Soon entered short position based on the fact ES w/ NQ & ER didn’t manage to refresh session highs. At that time internals became mixed, neutral. Market was sloshing at a place, so right decision seemed to fix the trade on no move to the downside I called for.

Still, should admit, risk management system troubles again showed up. But in comparison with the past monday occasion now the fault, as you see, have materialized in heavy drawdown. I worked on the problem for the couple of hours right now and do think that will not repeat again.

09/02/10

Extremely shaky session finished. Trades results - mixed. In the morning there were pretty bullish internals ($tick: 2t.<-600, 4t.>+800; $trin: 0.7; $add: +1.8k w/ SP500: +1.2%). Plus, my long position was also based on secors performance: 2nd strngst sctr, energies (xle), was making higher high. But I was wrong and VWAP have been again tested and finally broken to the downside. Trade was fixed by stop loss order.

But if mkr not soaring - it will fall. On behalf of that rule, plus sharp materials (xlb), strongest sector, slide and large $tick minues's I entered short. Soon fixed on external troubles and on interim no downside move continuation. Wasn't not correct - mkt continued sliding.

Closer to the session finish I again entered short, on financials lower lows and mkt trend to ones again try to break below VWAP. There was move below VWAP but then ES sharply pulled back exactly to the level of my stop loss order, hedging against possible current trade loss.

But mkt seemed to me still trending to go below VWAP. On broad strngst & wkst sectors participation in mkt sliding, once again, I entered short, against bullish internals. That was the most, let me name, 'hot' mistake. ES indeed cracked far below VWAP, but seemed like bears didn't bet on it. It was clear when my prior trade met stop loss. If mkt can not, for several times (in current occasion more than 4), break some sup./res. level - chill out. That's the central trouble for me: i extremely do not like to adopt my trading mistakes. Issue to struggle with. Though, for such occasions risk management properly works. The trade met stop loss and fixed minus near 5%.

Final session trade was based on micro diver and interim bearish $tick numbers. Fixed soon on weak bears participation in the move. But that was too early and mkt continued sliding almost till the closing bell.

08/02/10

Morning trade was based on correlation between S&P 500 & Nasaq Composite with Russell 2000. Couple of minutes before NQ with ER have slided sharply while ES ws at a place. Plus, first ssn minute results were: ES:+0.05%; ER:-0.6%; NQ:-0.1%. Too huge gap between ES & NQ. In term with sharp NQ (with ER) decline ahead sessn open bell, S&P in respect with overnight trading levels, seemed overbought. Fixed, cause near 5th february 10' VPOC, plus just do not prefer trading at a morning, too shaky and lack of internals data collected.

Although, the session was tremendously hard for me. My risk management system have cracked. There was a possibility of huge drawdown. But external environment was in my favor and the problem was resolved. Still, lot of work to do to avoid such risk management system fault happen again.

05/02/10

Another not bad session, in term of profit. First trade was opened at the very beginning of the ssn. I was calling for a decline on extremely bearish internals ($tick: 1t.>+400 & 3t.<-800; $add:-1.4k while SP500 was at zero). Fixed soon, cause volatility was extremely high, xlb & xlf (ytds laggards) were far above its ssn lows and i just don't so often open trades at the morning cause lack of internals statistic - it seemed to me too shaky.

Soon i reentered short on an issue of tremendously huge gap between ultra bearish internals and not huge SP500 decline so far that moment. Fixed very soon as declining pace shrank.

After an hour and a half since open bell i entered 3rd short. But i didnt met as excessive downside move, as i was calling for - mkt was even sloshing at one place for a while. I fixed and that was too early. Still, pretty nice total result for the past week: plus 11 ES points or almost 17% profit.

04/02/10

Wow.. SP500 - minus 3.11%. Leading laggards: financials (-4.24%) & energy (-4.03%). Moreover, volume was 20% exceeding average of the 4 sessions before todays. Euro also lost its ground. Thats how it starting again. Gold lost more then 50 bucks! From 1111$, globex ssn high, to с/p at 1064$. Crude oil slumped from 77$ to 72-73$. Bloomberg said the sharpest decline since july. Yeah! Even more, crude 20ema h4 is at the brink to solidly cross below 50ema h4.

As of me, i jumped into the short trade well after nice normal diver sell signal have appeared already. Still, late enry calling for new market lows in term of extra bearishness and the fact of continuing down side trend day wasn't a mistake. Energies and materials were trying hard not to make lower low, but stocks bulls lost their ground and no buying was corresponded to just slow or fast sliding. Fixed at 2nd strng support VPOC level (click chart), cause 1st sup.level mkt coudnt break out for some time, meanwhile closing bell was coming.

03/02/10

It was all about accuracy. Entered long calling for VWAP upside breakout (realized) and potential move to levels near session highs (not realized). Entered on normal divergence on ER & NQ w/ $tick confirmation. Added on sharp xle recovery (sector who did push mkt to the dn.side during past hour before my t. entry). ES break above VWAP, but it was all about accuracy.

How much ES was crossing VWAP during the session? More then 5 already. Too much not to rely on VWAP breakout value that session. Second issue - internals.

$tick: 9t.>+800/10t<-800 and 3t.>+1k/3t<-1k. thats neutral. zero.

Still $tick didnt posted any candle below -200 last 15 minutes before my entry.
not great issue, but ok, let it be. 0 + 1 = 1

But. $add:-800 while SP500 at -0.5%. bearish. 1 - 1 = 0

And $trin: 1.75 - bearish, so 0 - 1 = -1

So here goes summ: -1 It means indeed we had bearish internals. Shaky environment. I at least should place stop loss at a level with no total loss from both two todays session trades. Still plus 4.5% for the week for now.

02/02/10

There were too much risky trades on the table last session. Morning trade, #352, was based on, essentially, Nasdaq weakness and market trend to touch yesterdays close one more time. Fixed shortly after excessive volatility appeared on pending home sales that were in line with estimates.

Next goes trade #353. Wasnt here right to short on such strong internals ($tick: 1t.<-800, 16t.>+800; $trin:0.65; $add:+1.5k-SP500:+1.03%). Normal diver have realized but i havent fixed when should do it.

The most risky and unsuccessful, relating to ratio risk/reward was last for the ssn, trade 354. I just forget about Volker speech in the Senate. Not surprising, finacials started to fall during that time, leading market lower. Plus, as CNBC's Pisani have pointed out, there was some selloff on Moody's bearish comments on the U.S. government budget that was presented yesterday. All in all, as hearing have finished the main consequence traders have made was that the Volcker rule getting pushback from the Senate. Sectors broadly rallied as did ES. Fixed profit when it seemed like bull momentum was finished - ES > 3 minutes shaking at the place near 1000.50.

01/02/10

I'm seeking the way how to write this blog and in the test regime since 1st february 10' i decided to start posting here my real trades. With real money. With my reasons to open/close trades and my way of thinking overall. So here we go!

1st trade. It was all about ascending triangle (bearish pattern) that was forming all the globex session long. My long trade, before triangle breakout, was also based on bullish internals ($trin, $tick, leading sctrs were continuing pushing higher). Still, bulls were not as strong as i thought and after i have entered long, mkt have push back lit.bit. but even tho, there was no major $tick decline on the pullback.

Bulls finally got their trap and ascending triangle, as it was supposed to be, was broken to the upside. Have fixed my long near strng resistance level, 15th october 09' VPOC. Not the greatest trade. My r/p ratio was at 0.68. When its >1 trade is appropriate, when ratio <1 its too risky.