Opened short position as the session began on: 1) energies (XLE; strongest sector during first session minutes) lower lows and 2) Nasdaq Composite (NQ) no higher high. ES did manage to slide below VWAP, but there was no selling pressure. Furthermore, during first 20+ minutes of the session there was no minus $tick. Fixed.
After U.S. indexes had posted fresh session highs & ES soon had pulled back to the VWAP level, I have again entered short, betting on 2nd bears try to push lower. But again, during near 5 minutes ES was oscillating near VWAP w/ no bears come in. It just seemed like nobody noticed: 1) strong dollar posting fresh session highs as well as 2) energies (XLE) & financials (XLF; the weakest sector) posting new session lows. I exited the trade after what ES did posted interim lower low but again, there was no real bears participation. All sellers have managed to do was to post only two $ticks below -600 after what U.S. indexes again started to trend higher.
In summarize want to point out that I do not "buy" market performance during last sessions. I do mean that market internals make me highly concerned over U.S. indexes movements, especially in response w/ the past session. On tuesday, 23rd february, we did have tremendously bearish consumer confidence data (46.0 vs 55.0 estimated) but after announcement there was only 3 $ticks below -800. The next day, on wednesday - very bearish new home sales (309k vs 354k consensus) - and guess what? No $tick below -800 after the announcement. And finally the past session. U.S. indexes executed very strong w/ almost only one $tick below -800 during whole session w/ few fundamentals basics for upside move. But of course that's personally my contemplation. All in all, I do see two scenarios here: 1) market is in the denial phase after the rally since last years march or 2) it's all about Plunge Protection Team or something like that.
0 comments:
Post a Comment